This has been a question widely debated in the wrestling community this past week. Maybe it is Penn State’s lack of success recently at the 125 pound weight class or people just want to see a massive super match.
Going back to years past we have seen this with Seth Gross vs Bryce Meredith and Sebastian Rivera vs Stevan Micic. Both of these matches ended with the wrestler in the higher weight class winning.
Current Situation At 125-133:
Currently Iowa has Lee at 125 pounds and what looks like will be Brody Teske at 133 pounds. If Lee bumps to 133 that would mean that Teske is out and most likely Ayala will go in.
There are redshirt implications at 125 should Ayala wrestle, but with the amount of swing matches it all comes down to if the Brands think there is a possibility to win if they do it.
Penn State has Gary Steen at 125 and Roman Bravo-Young at 133 pounds. 125 is the weaker spot for Penn State but Steen should be headed into the rankings after his OT win against Michigan State’s Tristan Lujan.
Projections:
Should things stay the same, Spencer Lee is expected to pin Gary Steen at 125 pounds, and Roman Bravo-Young will most likely earn a dominant decision or a major. Given the way RBY looked against MSU’s Foley maybe he pins Teske.
Wrestle stat predicts Spencer Lee defeating Roman Bravo-Young 9-4. Lee and RBY have some common opponents including Rayvon Foley, Dylan Ragusin, and Matt Ramos who have all made bumps or drops in weight recently.
Lee has pinned all three of them while RBY has pinned Foley, majored Ramos and 4-2 over Ragusin. The weight change is the main thing to be noted here on how much that will effect Lee.
Should Ayala wrestle Steen at 125 that would most likely be a major predicted by wrestle stat or at least very close to one. Then let’s assume Lee beats RBY by decision, that would make the team score 7-0 heading into 141 pounds.
However let’s put the other scenario out there, should Steen not give up a bonus Iowa would be up 3-0. Now let’s say RBY beats Lee, then that would make it 3-3 heading into 141 pounds.
My Take:
It depends, and I hate not being able to have a solid choice on this but the risk to reward just doesn’t seem worth it in my opinion unless Iowa is 100% certain that Lee will defeat RBY and Ayala grab bonus points.
Iowa fans are going to say Lee wins and Penn State fans are going to say RBY wins and thats just how it will be, at the end of the day if RBY executes a perfect game plan and uses his size, and speed to his advantage staying out of danger then he could take it.
Will this make a difference in the dual outcome, most likely not. With the amount of swing matches is where it gets interesting.
Beau Bartlett vs Real Woods
Shayne Van Ness vs Max Murin
Levi Haines vs Cobe Siebrecht
Patrick Kennedy vs Alex Facundo
Max Dean vs Jacob Warner
Greg Kerk vs Tony Cassioppi
Personally if everything goes how I think it will on paper then I have Penn State winning by around 10-12 points. Swing matches are going to be everything in this dual, which ever team captitalizes on them will win and it’s that simple.
