The top-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions will host the #7 Ohio State Buckeyes in Rec Hall on Friday night in a highly anticipated Big 10 matchup.
Here are five things to know ahead of the rivalry showdown:
The History
Penn State leads Ohio State in the series 25-12, and has beaten Ohio State in eight consecutive dual meets dating back to the 2014-15 season.
The last time Ohio State defeated Penn State in Rec Hall was on February 6th, 2009, where the Buckeyes won 33-7.
The Best of the Best
This is one of the few dual meets all year long that will feature two top-30 ranked wrestlers at every single bout (going off of the probable starters).
Of all ranked matchups, Ohio State is only favored to win one of them, that bout being at 149-pounds between the Buckeyes’ #7 Dylan D’Emilio and the Nittany Lions’ #17 Tyler Kasak.
Outside of 149-pounds, Penn State is the clear favorite at nearly every other weight class which is troubling for Ohio State. 141-pounds will feature a #2 vs #3 between Beau Bartlett and Jesse Mendez, which Ohio State will have to win in order to keep this dual meet close.
Stay Out Of The Bonus
Like previously mentioned, Ohio State is not favored at 9 of 10 weight classes going into Friday night. The Buckeyes will need multiple upsets and will absolutely need to prevent giving up bonus points to the Nittany Lions in order to give them any chance.
Taking a look at Penn State’s bonus percentage should be concerning for the Buckeyes, as everyone above 149-pounds for the Nittany Lions holds over a 60% bonus rate, half of those being nearly 80% or higher.
Haines – 60%
Mesenbrink – 78% *
Starocci – 88% *
Truax – 63%
Brooks – 100% *
Kerkvliet – 63%
Gain Momentum, Keep Momentum
Gaining momentum is something that Ohio State will need to obtain early-on in Friday night’s dual. Knowing Penn State has a murderers row going past 149-pounds, it is essential that the Buckeyes win early and often to begin the night.
They might not be able to win at 125-pounds to start, however Ohio State’s #21 Brendan McCrone has been nasty on top this year and will need to continue to do that against Penn State’s #2 Braeden Davis. If McCrone can get to work on top it can slow down the match in a drastic way, and will limit the opportunity for bonus points from Davis on his feet.
Tom Ryan and the Ohio State coaching staff knows they NEED to win 133, 141, and 149-pounds all consecutively to give their squad a chance. It can certainly happen, as Bouzakis will need to win first to get that train going. In my opinion, Bouzakis has the right style to beat Nagao, but he has to keep the match on their feet and continue to pressure him throughout the seven minute bout and keep Nagao uncomfortable.
The match of the night should most definitely come at 141-pounds, between #2 Beau Bartlett and #3 Jesse Mendez. Once again, Ohio State needs this one to stay competitive, but it will be quite the challenge as Bartlett has looked really good as of late. Mendez will have not seen mat time in nearly two weeks thanks to his forfeit against Michigan, but will need to be on point in his must-win bout against Bartlett. The two have yet to square off in their collegiate careers, and it should be an awesome bout to watch this Friday.
149-pounds between #7 Dylan D’Emilio and #17 Tyler Kasak is the only bout Ohio State is the clear favorite to win, and they might need it to be by bonus. D’Emilio is coming off a recent loss to Michigan’s #6 Austin Gomez, and Kasak just grabbed a gold medal at Lock Haven’s Mat Town Open to secure his starting position in the Penn State lineup. D’Emilio needs to bring the heat to Kasak, and give the young freshman something he has yet to have this season in a major decision loss. This could set up Ohio State for another upset down the line, and keep the momentum going into the second half.
Lineup Projection + Prediction
125 – #3 Braeden Davis vs. #24 Brendan McCrone
133 – #5 Aaron Nagao vs. #12 Nic Bouzakis
141 – #2 Beau Bartlett vs. #3 Jesse Mendez
149 – #12 Tyler Kasak vs. #7 Dylan D’Emilio
157 – #1 Levi Haines vs. #29 Isaac Wilcox
165 – #7 Mitchell Mesenbrink vs. #20 Bryce Hepner
174 – #1 Carter Starocci vs. #11 Rocco Welsh
184 – #5 Bernie Truax vs. #31 Seth Shumate
197 – #1 Aaron Brooks vs. #22 Luke Geogg
285 – #1 Greg Kerkvliet vs. #12 Nick Feldman
My Prediction: Penn State over Ohio State, 30-6